Is the coronavirus the end of the world?

To answer this question let’s analyze the different scenarios for this coronavirus pandemic. To include all the options we’ll go from the worst to the best of them.

The reality will probably fall somewhere in between.

The data analyzed so far show the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.4%. That is, out of one hundred people infected, 3-4 of them die.

1. FIRST SCENARIO. THE WHOLE WORLD POPULATION GETS INFECTED.

This is the worst possible scenario. But it is also unlikely. It is unlikely because even if we don’t take any measures to prevent the contagion (which we are already taking), and no vaccines are found, the virus will never infect 100% of the population.

When approx. 70% of the population has been infected (and therefore are immune) we will achieve the herd immunity. At this point, the virus won’t be able to move around easily due to the immune individuals. And the remaining population won’t get the infection.

However, if 100% of the world population gets infected, 3.4% will die. As there are around 7 billion people on earth, 238 million will die.

This is a gigantic number and would be a disaster, but still, it wouldn’t be the end of the human race. There would still be over 6.5 billion people left.

2. SECOND SCENARIO. WE ACHIEVE HERD IMMUNITY WHEN 70% GETS INFECTED.

It’s been calculated that when 70% of the population gets infected, we will achieve herd immunity, as we’ve explained before.

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August 2021 Update: Awkwardly, this info didn’t age well. Due to new variants, like Delta Covid, we’ve seen that herd immunity requires a higher percentage of immunity (around 90%).
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If people have already been infected, they become (at least partially) immune and the virus won’t be able to spread between individuals.

From the 7 billion people on earth, 4.9 billion would become infected, and 166 million would die.

Still, a terrifying figure, but lower than the FIRST (and worst) SCENARIO.

3. THIRD SCENARIO. THE PREVENTIVE MEASURES AND QUARANTINE SLOW DOWN THE SPREAD. A VACCINE IS DEVELOPED.

It would be the most realistic scenario, given the current situation where most countries have implanted some measures (quarantine, generalized masks use…).

These measures are slowing down the spread of the infection. This way we can avoid an accumulation of many deaths in a short period (and the subsequent health system collapse). Also, it lets us gain time for the development of a vaccine.

Let’s say the vaccine isn’t ready until January. So far (August 2020), around 700.000 people have died.

In the following months, at this current rate, there could be around 1.5 – 2 million dead people (before the vaccine is ready). This is a difficult number to estimate, as we don’t know how things will evolve, but it allows us to get an idea.

2 million dead people is a disgrace, nobody is saying otherwise. But it is a very lower number compared to the hundreds of millions from the previous scenarios.

4. FOURTH SCENARIO. THE VIRUS STARTS REDUCING ITS SEVERITY AND MORTALITY.

There is an existing theory where, as the virus starts mutating, it will reduce its mortality rate.

The reason has something to do with the Darwin theory.

Let’s explain it with the following example. Viruses mutate, that’s what they usually do.

They replicate all the time, and from time to time, they make a mistake (that’s what a mutation is).

Let’s say the virus mutates and gives two different forms. One of them is more aggressive, with a high mortality rate. The other one is less aggressive.

Which one will “win”? We could think the aggressive one will, but… NO.

If the aggressive virus infects a person, it will probably kill him. And then, it won’t be able to spread to other individuals.

The virus wants to be able to keep infecting other individuals and so, it’s better for him if the host doesn’t die.

So, the weak form has a higher chance of surviving.

According to this theory, as time passes, the virus will mutate and become less lethal.

And maybe one day it will be similar to the influenza virus (as for the mortality rate). To get us an idea, influenza causes around 650.000 deaths every year.

This would be the lowest figure and the most optimistic scenario. Besides, we could still find a vaccine and the numbers would still be lower.

THEN, WHY IS IT SO SERIOUS?

Well, all the scenarios we’ve seen are terrible. Even if it is not the end of humanity, 650.000 is a really high number. Actually, we are already past that number (at the time of writing this post there are 690.777 official deaths due to coronavirus in the world).

August 2021 update: 4.5 million deaths so far.

The severity of the COVID-19 comes from its mortality, way higher than that of the regular flu or influenza, and from how fast it spreads.

At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, before the preventive measures, every infected individual could infect another 3-5 people. This is a very high number.

If we didn’t take any measures (social distancing, masks, quarantine…), millions of people would die as we’ve seen. Unless the virus mutates into a weaker form.

LIFE AFTER CORONAVIRUS

No doubt that life after Coronavirus won’t be the same.

Not in the immediate future and probably not after that either.

The way we interact with each other, go shopping, social events… are going to change.

For the moment we are getting used to using masks, keeping a social distance, and wash our hands.

Businesses will have to adapt to the “new normality”, especially for the next months until a vaccine is (hopefully) developed.

Besides, the economy will suffer. A lot. Thousands of businesses are having no other choice than closing. Consequently, many people are losing their jobs in those businesses.

All these people will go through financial trouble. And those businesses that do make it won’t have as many clients willing to pay. Because these same clients are the people that lost their job.

All these factors generate a vicious circle that will make things rough in the future. However, let’s not lose hope. Because we will make it through again this time.